The IPL is getting tense, and especially for Rajasthan Royals (RR) fans, it’s downright nerve-wracking. We’re at that stage of the tournament where every single match feels like a knockout game, and for the Royals, the margin for error has shrunk to almost nothing. This is what the Rajasthan Royals qualification scenario has come to.

It’s very difficult for RR fans to see their favourite pink warriors in this disheartening condition after having a formidable 2024 edition. As you might know, the start of the previous season wasn’t good for the Royals either, however, they finished third in the end. But are the Rajasthan Royals playoff chances really close to zero this year? Let’s take a look at what’s holding the team back, and what exactly needs to happen for us to see the pink army making noise in the playoffs again.

A Season of Ups and Downs：RR’s 2025 Rollercoaster

To say that RR’s 2025 season has been a rollercoaster would be a massive understatement. It’s been more like a heart-stopping freefall followed by a brief, exhilarating climb, and then another plunge. Shockingly so, they have played 9 matches till now, out of which, they have lost 7. This has greatly hampered the Rajasthan Royals playoff chances for this season.

But to be honest, most of these losses were very close, and in a few of the RR recent matches, the Royals appeared to be fiercely competitive. However, it’s also true that they have let matches slip away from a strong position, which is highly concerning. Winning these matches could have bargained for a better place for RR on the points table in 2025.

When talking about these matches, one cannot help but bring up the match against Delhi Capitals (DC) which was in RR’s grasp, but towards the end of the match, they let their guard down and allowed DC to sweep away the match. The same thing happened in the match against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), they seemed well on the way to chasing the target but faltered near the end, giving away the match. Originally, discussions about the Rajasthan Royals qualification scenario might not have been necessary, but they always seem to loosen the rope at the last moment.

What’s Dragging RR Back？

The Rajasthan Royals’ struggles this season aren’t due to just one factor; there are multiple reasons contributing to their underperformance. Let’s take a look.

Over-Reliance on the Top Order

The batting order boasts some of the biggest names of up-and-coming players, the most prominent of which are Yashasvi Jaiswal and Riyan Parag. Combine them with the experienced Sanju Samson, who is a complete menace when it comes to the T20 format, and voila, you’ve got yourself a top order that can lay waste to any and every bowling attack in the world. So why don’t the top ranks show RR on the points table in 2025?

In the zone! 🙇

Yashasvi Jaiswal brings up a 3⃣rd FIFTY in his last 4⃣ innings 🙌

85 needed from 48 deliveries. Who will win? 🤔

Updates ▶ https://t.co/clW1BIPA0l#TATAIPL | #DCvRR | @rajasthanroyals | @ybj_19 pic.twitter.com/aRDwt4nYkn

— IndianPremierLeague (@IPL) April 16, 2025

But here’s the thing about the Royals’ batting… the numbers tell a pretty clear story. They’re leaning on their big guns at the top. Like, a massive percentage of their total runs, on average, come from just the first three batsmen. That’s not exactly ideal, is it? It’s like they’re a three-legged stool – if one leg goes, the whole thing wobbles, and this is exactly what is making the Rajasthan Royals’ qualification scenario more and more bleak.

A fighting effort from Dhruv + some big hits from Jofra means we give it our absolute all in the next half. 💪 pic.twitter.com/CV6YaB5OGB

— Rajasthan Royals (@rajasthanroyals) March 26, 2025

And when those top guys have an off day, the team feels it. Remember that KKR match? They scraped together only 151 – their lowest score this season. That’s a prime example from RR recent matches of what happens when the top order doesn’t fire. But then you have games where those guys do click, like against Punjab Kings… and it’s a completely different story.

The Middle Order Crisis

This is where the over-dependency on the top order stems from, which is like the major thing that’s upsetting the Rajasthan Royals playoff chances. There’s no doubt, guys, that RR’s batting lineup looks intimidating, but only on paper. In actuality, the middle order has proved to be a liability in most cases for the RR team. Players like Nitish Rana have utterly disappointed this season to the extent that you can’t exactly point out what he has contributed to the team so far, well, of course, barring the matches against CSK and DC.

And the other members of the middle order… oh boy, that’s been a bit of a headache, hasn’t it? They’ve struggled when they’re up against some serious bowling firepower. You saw it in those games against Gujarat and KKR, right? It’s like, if the top order gets rattled, they just can’t seem to pick up the pieces. They either can’t get the scoreboard ticking over, or they lose a quick succession of wickets. It’s been a recurring theme, this inability to either accelerate the scoring or just steady the ship after losing those early wickets.

Proof that Dhruv Jurel just loves to bat! 💗 pic.twitter.com/0QAo67dTBW

— Rajasthan Royals (@rajasthanroyals) March 29, 2025

Yeah, when you look at the batting averages, it’s pretty stark. There’s this definite dip after the top three. I mean, Dhruv Jurel and Shimron Hetmyer, they’ve both shown us what they can do – some real moments of brilliance. But they just haven’t been able to keep that momentum going, you know? They either throw it away after a good start, or they just can’t seem to dig the team out of a hole when things get tough early on. It’s that consistency that’s missing, as evidenced by RR recent matches.

Rajasthan Royals Qualification Scenario 2025

Now, let’s talk about the Rajasthan Royals playoff chances. Bottom line: it’s a tightrope walk. If the inaugural champions manage to pull off a win in their last five games, they’d end up with 14 points. Now, here’s the catch: in this IPL, 14 points are probably not going to be enough to guarantee even the fourth spot for RR on the points table in 2025. It’s a crazy league, and other teams are also fighting tooth and nail.

What it does do, though, is give them a mathematical shot. They’d still be in the running, technically. But here’s the tricky part: it’s not just about winning those five games. They’ve got to win them, and they’ve got to win them big. Their Net Run Rate (NRR) has taken a bit of a beating, you know, with some of those losses, so they need to pump up those margins of victory.

Conclusion

As the season nears its end, the Rajasthan Royals qualification scenario has become a nail-biting affair. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, RR’s path forward is clear: they need to win all their remaining matches, and win big. For now, it’s a waiting game – can the Royals turn it around, or will their hopes slip away yet again? Stay tuned to All IPL criclive for the latest updates on RR.