As the 2025–26 Ashes creeps closer, the burning question on every cricket fan’s lips remains: will Pat Cummins play Ashes? The Australia captain is racing against the clock to recover from a troublesome back injury that’s been bugging him since the West Indies tour in July. With the first Test set to begin in Perth on November 21, the Aussies are holding their breath, and so are England’s batsmen, just maybe for different reasons.

What’s Gone Wrong for Cummins?

Injury has come knocking again for the Aussie skipper, this time in the form of a lumbar bone stress injury. It was picked up during Australia’s tour of the West Indies, and since then, Cummins hasn’t bowled a single competitive delivery. The news only got worse when recent scans revealed the damage hadn’t fully healed. As Cummins himself confessed at Fox Cricket’s season launch, “I’d say less likely than likely” when asked if he’d play the Ashes opener.

Pat Cummins indicates he is unlikely to be ready for the first Ashes Test in Perth

▶️ https://t.co/evAeIEsf4o pic.twitter.com/iYcUSZHm0S

— ESPNcricinfo (@ESPNcricinfo) October 13, 2025

Despite still having several weeks until the first ball is bowled in Perth, he added, “You want at least a month in the nets… Four weeks is pretty tight.” And with time ticking and the recovery process dragging, the question will Pat Cummins play Ashes is still as cloudy as a British summer.

How’s He Travelling Now?

The good news? Cummins is slowly but surely getting back on his feet.

“Each session gets a bit longer,” he said, sharing that he’s resumed light running and gradually increasing his training load. “I’m probably a couple of weeks away before actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on the turf.”

That said, he was quick to caution fans that there’s still a bit of a road ahead: “It’s really too early to make some big decisions. You’re trying to tick off each session to get one step closer.” Coach Andrew McDonald echoed this cautious optimism, saying “My view would be four, four-and-a-half weeks” before Cummins is bowling-fit. But with only six weeks to go until the Ashes opener, it’s tight, really tight. All of this keeps the debate alive: will Pat Cummins play Ashes or sit this one out?

Why England Are Quietly Smiling?

Cummins missing the first Test or even the whole series would be massive. Let’s not sugarcoat it. The Aussie captain isn’t just a fast bowler; he’s the fast bowler. With 309 Test wickets (91 of them in Ashes battles), his absence would leave a hole in the bowling attack and the leadership group. As Ian Healy bluntly put it,

“He will be a huge miss but do not risk Pat Cummins at all. He’s a composed and absolutely consistent performer.”

For England, this could be their chance to finally break the drought on Aussie soil; they haven’t won a Test Down Under since 2011. With Australia Ashes squad lacking their usual firestarter, Ben Stokes and Co. might be sniffing opportunity.

Who Steps Up If Cummins Sits Out?

If Cummins can’t make it, Australia aren’t without options, but none quite like him. Steve Smith is the obvious stand-in skipper. He’s done the job before and brings tons of experience. As for the bowling, Scott Boland is the clear frontrunner as the replacement for Pat Cummins. Known for his relentless line and length, Boland is expected to slot in alongside Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood in the pace trio. Ian Healy backs Boland, saying,

“Scott Boland is going to be into the attack – he will be first in line.” But the Australia Ashes squad might need more depth than just Boland. Michael Neser, Fergus O’Neill, and Xavier Bartlett are all in the conversation, with Healy adding, “Neser – if he’s the best candidate we’ve got in the ranks, let’s get him in. He’s the number one.”

Neser, a strong performer for Australia A, is well respected within the dressing room, while O’Neill and Bartlett are rising stars itching for their first big Test series.

The Bigger Picture：Burnout and the Burden of Leadership

The whole situation raises serious questions about workload. Since taking over the Test captaincy in 2021, Cummins has bowled more than 720 overs in Test cricket more than any Aussie pacer and more than most spinners. Leadership, long spells, and a relentless cricketing calendar have finally taken their toll.

David Warner, “England will win the first TEST if Cummins doesn’t play”.

Pat Cummins, “It’s the nicest thing Davey’s ever said about me”. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/xz0Li1SXLg

— Salman. (@TsMeSalman) October 13, 2025

“He’s tolerant, calm and an empowering leader,” Healy said. But even the calmest leaders can crack under pressure especially if they’re carrying the entire attack on their back, literally. The Australia Ashes squad needs depth, not just brilliance, if they’re going to survive the long summer ahead.

Final Words

The final call on Cummins will be made closer to match day, but for now, uncertainty reigns. Whether it’s Smith leading the charge or Cummins making a dramatic return, the Aussies need to be ready. The replacement for Pat Cummins won’t just be filling boots. They’ll be filling the role of one of cricket’s most influential figures. So, back to the original question: will Pat Cummins play Ashes? The answer, for now, is a frustrating “maybe.” All eyes will be on that team sheet come November 21. Until then, England will hope, Australia will plan, and Cummins? He’ll keep running, and ticking off those rehab boxes, one by one.